How I’m calling it:
As the “virtual incumbent” malaise sets in, I don’t expect an Obama landslide in the national tally. He will probably break the 50% barrier but not by much. Where I expect the landslide will be in the electoral vote, with Obama winning at least half a dozen more states than Kerry did in 2004. If Obama wins less than 50% in the popular vote the only difference is that you won’t hear any more demands from the left to abolish the electoral college…a good thing in itself!
So how do I expect this to work? Well lets look at the states that I expect to go for Obama:
Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Pennsylvania, and Ohio in the Northwest. Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois, Minnesota, and Iowa in the Midwest. California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii in the Pacific. Colorado and New Mexico in the Rockies.
What about McCain? West Virginia, Kentucky, Indiana, Tennessee, Arkansas, Louisiana and Missouri in the Ohio/Mississippi region. Alabama and South Carolina in the deep south. Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, Wyoming, Idaho, and Utah the West and Plains.
So far a very ho hum prediction…here’s where it gets interesting. I think Virginia will go for Obama while North Carolina will go for McCain, which again, isn’t all that surprising. McCain should also hold on to his own state of Arizona, and Palin’s Alaska. But I am calling Florida for Obama, and get this: Georgia, Mississippi (!), and Montana I am putting in the Obama column.
How on earth could this be? I’m calling it the “third party pivot” but its more simple to say that Bob Barr will deliver Georgia to Obama, Chuck Baldwin will be the spoiler in Mississippi, and Ron Paul (!) will do the same in Montana.
And you didn’t even think Ron Paul was running did you!? Well, actually he didn’t want to, at least in Montana…but in accordance with an archaic election law he is running there on the ticket of the Constitution Party…an organization he doesn’t even belong to! I would like him to win the electoral votes as well…but I’m afraid that there will be just enough votes to make the difference between Obama and McCain. North Dakota, with very similar demographics to Montana, will probably go for McCain…simply because Ron Paul is not on the ballot there.
So what’s the point. After all, Obama has a win even without Georgia, Mississipii, and Montana. The point is that when Republicans start to figure out what hit them, they’re going to need some signposts along the way back to sanity and putting a winning coalition back together. Those three blue states surrounded by red, surrounded in turn by blue will be the pointers saying: Let the Ron Paul freedom coalition back into the game…or the GOP is RIP!
A few more nuances. Why do I predict no comparable effect by Nader on Obama’s electoral take? Because the Nader vote is too thin and geographically uniform. In contrast there are regional clusters of Barr, Baldwin, and Paul supporters, i.e. ex-Barr constituents disenfranchised by redistricting in Georgia, the “Bible Belt” running through Mississippi and the Florida panhandle for Baldwin, and the “libertarian belt” (gee, what else could you call it) running along the 49th parallel. Also, I see ethnic and cultural differences among the white population of the southeast with people in the highlands (“hillbillies”) somewhat more likely to vote for McCain, and people in the lowlands (“rednecks” et al) somewhat more likely (!) to vote for Obama. So Virginia goes for Obama because there is a West Virginia, but the Carolinas go for McCain because there is no east and west Carolina, only a North and a South. Or something like that. I suppose one could dispute these ethnological niceties endlessly. However I am more interested in seeing the results develop through tonight and tomorrow…and see if my hypothesis holds up.
The Superiority of Voting For Principle Over Not Voting at All
As I have said in comments on several other blogs, I felt the that the most principled vote for libertarians and paleoconservatives in 2008 was for Chuck Baldwin. Many in these philosophical camps have advocating not exercising the franchise, faced with the choice of a left-socialist and a right-socialist. However not voting, which leaves no trace, doesn’t suffice to register a protest. It will be interesting to see what the total votes of third parties will come out to in the next couple of days. A high vote would express a dissastisfaction with the present two party system. On the other hand a non-vote could be interpreted as either apathy or protest, an ambiguity which of course the supporters of the system would interpret to their advantage.
As much as I respect the persons and positions of the non-vote strategists, this is likely to be a bad year for them. This campaign has generated tremendous energy, particularly among the Obama side, but also among the Republican base after the nomination of Sarah Palin as McCain’s running mate. Hopes that a mounting historical trend of nonparticipation in the electoral process would delegitimate the political system are likely to be dashed in the immediate future.
About Baldwin I have no regrets. The Constitution party is a half-baked idea who’s time has yet to come, and probably never will as long at it is run by factuous amatures. But Baldwin addressed issues with dignity and using the rhetorical conventions which were once the halmark of the American republic. Even on those issues where I disagree with him he has argued with logical coherence…never pandering to his audience, but rather trying to evoke in them a renewed committment to higher principles. In short, a political strategy which is guaranteed to result in defeat, since it over-, rather than underestimates the intelligence and morality of the electorate. John McCain has persued the opposite strategy…and he is going down in defeat anyway…taking his honor with him.
For that reason I don’t consider my vote for the Baldwin/Castle ticket wasted…quite the opposite!
Pico and Savonarola
I find myself deeply conflicted when I watch the news of the financial collapse. There is a part of me which likes to see the wicked get their deserts. If I were to give this subpersonality a name, Savonarola would be as good as any. The United States is suffering today from its own love affair with an enjoy now, pay later, economy, a love affair which has turned sour as all worldly loves tend to do.
In Medici Florence at the end of the 15th century something similar occured. People who had been living beyond their means suddenly found themselves forced to make a virtue of poverty due to social upheaval. Enter Savanarola, your typical “mad monk” of the Black Legend. It would seem that this charming fellow, if the reports are to be believed, wanted to make a bonfire of the accomplishments of the Italian Renaissance. As soon as a revolution placed him in power he became the original “liberation theologian” liberating the Florentines from their priceless artworks and incunablia.
Burn baby burn! There is something purifying about a fire, an indeed any human calamity. When we see the sinners punished it gives a sort of vicarious thrill does it not? It must or, for example, CNN would not be featuring a TOP TEN WANTED LIST of America’s miscreant financial elite. The flames are cracking and the hour of revenge is at hand. My inner Savonarola is waxing rightous.
But there is another part of me which watches in horror at the destruction of my nation’s wealth. Fundamentally, I am not a Savonarola, but a Pico de la Mirandola. Like the latter man, a scholar and an epicure, I take a chivalrous attitude towards the works of human art. There is no production of the human mind so vulgar or pagan that I would not wish to salvage it for the critical inspection of posterity.
And in today’s bonfire there is much which cries out for salvation. As the mendacious mogels of mortgages go up in flames many an innocent bystander is being scorched as well. The psychology of markets, the interlocking of interest rates and the clearing of prices ensure that many people who saved and made sound, even ethical decisions are being hurt by the unscrupulous trend-setters. Hard working employees of mismanaged companies are the fired without notice as executives cushion their fall from grace.
But the flames are not easily appeased. Too much fuel has already been fed to them, and they are spreading through the forum. In the end Pico decides to his lot in with Savonarola. “Yes, let it all burn! These vanities have dragged us down into hell. Let them perish…if only we can escape with our naked souls and our freedom intact!”
And so it all went in…the paintings and the sculptures and the books. It will be sad indeed if the analogy holds true and America is stripped as bare as Florence was in the aftermath of Savonarola. But the tragedy didn’t end there, for eventually Savonarola himself went the way of the vanities, and Pico too disapeared.
We’ll just have to wait and see if history persists in repeating itself. Meanwhile, in my inner world, Savonarola and Pico are locked in furious struggle. And I suspect I am not unique in that respect.
